Standings

Points after every round, and the title odds: the rest of the season simulated 20,000 times from the model's current ratings, with 6 races and 0 sprints left.

Points progression

top five

Drivers

P	Driver	Pts	Wins	Pod.	Title odds	Market	Final pts (10–90%)
1	ANT Mercedes	340	8	14	>99%	96%	384–450
2	RUS Mercedes	238	3	8	<1%	<1%	261–319
3	HAM Ferrari	229	1	6	<1%	<1%	255–313
4	VER Red Bull	221	2	9	<1%	2%	259–326
5	LEC Ferrari	215	1	5	<1%	<1%	240–298
6	NOR McLaren	201	2	5	<1%	<1%	222–277
7	PIA McLaren	138	0	2	–	<1%	153–202
8	HAD Red Bull	97	0	2	–	<1%	112–160
9	LAW RB F1 Team	75	0	0	–	<1%	82–123
10	GAS Alpine F1 Team	41	0	0	–	<1%	45–82
11	LIN RB F1 Team	38	0	0	–	<1%	43–81
12	COL Alpine F1 Team	27	0	0	–	<1%	27–57
13	BEA Haas F1 Team	23	0	0	–	<1%	23–52
14	HUL Audi	13	0	0	–	<1%	15–48
15	BOR Audi	10	0	0	–	<1%	10–37
16	ALO Aston Martin	7	0	0	–	<1%	7–29
17	OCO Haas F1 Team	7	0	0	–	<1%	7–35
18	SAI Williams	7	0	0	–	<1%	7–33
19	ALB Williams	5	0	0	–	<1%	5–20
20	TSU RB F1 Team	1	0	0	–	–
21	BOT Cadillac F1 Team	0	0	0	–	<1%	0–12
22	PER Cadillac F1 Team	0	0	0	–	<1%	0–18
23	STR Aston Martin	0	0	0	–	<1%	0–14

Constructors

P	Team	Pts	Title	Market
1	Mercedes	578	>99%	98%
2	Ferrari	444	<1%	1%
3	McLaren	339	<1%	<1%
4	Red Bull	332	<1%	<1%
5	RB F1 Team	100	–	–
6	Alpine F1 Team	68	–	<1%
7	Haas F1 Team	30	–	<1%
8	Audi	23	–	<1%
9	Williams	12	–	<1%
10	Aston Martin	7	–	<1%
11	Cadillac F1 Team	0	–	<1%

Title odds assume each remaining race looks like the next one to the model: today's form, no track-specific effects, no upgrades. Each simulated driver's form also drifts race to race by the amount measured on 2023–26. Market = Kalshi mid-price, shown as it trades (a long shot rarely trades below 1¢, so markets overstate tiny chances).